National Collegiate Athletic Association
NCAA News Archive - 2007
« back to 2007 | Back to NCAA News Archive Index
Goliath meet David
Improbable outcomes define March Madness
Improbable outcomes define March Madness
|
By Greg Johnson
The NCAA News
The NCAA News
Originally, the concept for seeding the Division I Men’s Basketball Championship was to ensure that like teams had equitable paths to the Final Four.
While seeding teams, which started in 1979, added integrity to the process of crowning a national champion, some unintended byproducts occurred that have helped put the madness in March.
They’re called upsets, Cinderalla stories and buzzer-beaters. And they make or break hearts, ratings and dreams.
Upsets have a point of reference thanks to seeding. So when an eight-seed Villanova wins the national title or 11--seed George Mason advances to the Final Four, it puts some perspective on the accomplishment.
On the men’s side, prognosticators ponder which 16-seed will finally break through and beat a No. 1 seed, like No. 16 Harvard did in the women’s championship in 1998.
It’s what helps define the tournaments — particularly the first Thursday through Tuesday when the nation’s heartbeat quickens during 96 potential David-beats-Goliath scenarios.
Sometimes the magic strikes in dramatic fashion, such as when 13-seed Valparaiso’s Bryce Drew hit a jump shot at the buzzer to sink No. 4 Mississippi in the first round in 1998. Sometimes the magic is extended, such as when the No. 13 Liberty women’s team advanced to the regional semifinals in 2005.
“America still loves the underdog,” said Dave Gavitt, a former chair of the men’s committee. “That is a natural phenomenon in sports. People also respect the integrity of the tournament and of the process. No one is trying to rig this.”
Gavitt, a member of the committee from 1979-84, noticed right away the benefits of seeding the tournament. The committee felt something needed to be done to keep regional powers from facing each other early. There were times in the 1970s where the Big Ten Conference champion, the Southeastern Conference champion and strong independent programs like Marquette and DePaul were all placed in the Mideast portion of the bracket.
“The decision to go to seeding allowed us to be comfortable moving teams out of their natural areas,” Gavitt said. “It created some amazing intersectional matchups in the early rounds that we never had before. That was compelling for the tournament, for television and for media coverage.”
It also boosted competitive equity in the field.
“Each tournament writes its own story,” Gavitt said. “I’ve always told the people who have followed me on the committee that if they did a good job in their seeding, the tournament will take care of itself.” ‘It’s good!’
One of the most replayed buzzer-beaters is Drew’s game-winning three-pointer that gave the nation’s instantly loved “Valpo” a 70-69 win over fourth-seeded Mississippi.
Facing a two-point deficit and having to go the length of the court in under three seconds with no timeouts, the senior-laden Valparaiso team knew to pull the play named “Pacer” from its playbook. Homer Drew, Bryce’s dad and head coach, was proud he didn’t have to tell his club what to do, even though it faced long odds.
Jamie Sykes threw a three-quartercourt pass to Bill Jenkins, who touched-passed to the onrushing Drew for the three-pointer.
“We’d go five-on-zero in practice and couldn’t make that play work,” Homer Drew said. “What you saw on television was the best it ever worked. I was in direct line when he took the shot, and it looked like it was going to be short. I believe all the prayers in that arena gave it enough air to get it over the rim. If you look at it closely, the ball does hit the front of the rim and goes in.”
Drew’s club then beat Florida State, 83-77, in overtime to advance to the Midwest regional semifinal. They also caught the imagination of a nation, who found out about a small Division I institution in northwest Indiana.
“The beauty of March Madness is that it is the most exciting venue in sports,” Drew said. “People are excited about the underdog. They wonder, ‘Can 3 beat 14, or when is 16 going to beat 1?’ ”
While the latter hasn’t been accomplished in the men’s tournament, the women have proven it can be done. Surprisingly, it happened during an era in which the top seeds played at home. Harvard, led by all-American Allison Feaster, traveled 3,000 miles and pulled off arguably the biggest upset in either the men’s or women’s tournaments. The Crimson’s 71-67 win over the Cardinal not only is the lone victory by a 16 seed, but it also came at Stanford’s Maples Pavilion, where the Cardinal had a 59-game win streak snapped.
Feaster, the nation’s leading scorer that season, scored 35 points to spearhead Harvard’s amazing win.
Harvard coach Kathy Delaney-Smith said a late-game adjustment on defense helped clinch the game.
“We changed to a zone in the last minute of the game, because (Stanford center) Olympia Scott started to heat up. We didn’t want her isolated on one of our players, so we took a chance. I remember thinking we are going to live or die with this decision.”
Delaney-Smith said the foundation for her team’s upset was built the year before when her team had to play a first-round game at North Carolina, led by point guard Marion Jones.
“We were down 20-something at halftime, and I was amazed that my players truly believed they could come back,” Delaney-Smith said. “We staged a couple of comebacks, and they had to keep their starters in. We were respectable.” She also knew she had Feaster returning for her senior season. To this day, the Harvard program still relishes the moment.
“We take pride in it, because it was on Stanford’s home court,” Delaney-Smith said. “We women have been trying to get neutral sites to even the playing field, because the rich get richer when you can play on your home court. But the Harvard-Stanford matchup took place in one of the best venues in the country, and it was great.”
Perhaps no one in NCAA tournament history has pulled off more stunners than former Richmond coach Dick Tarrant. The Spiders won games seeded as low as 12, 13 and 14 — and they were the first 15 seed to win a game in the men’s tournament when they took down second-seeded Syracuse, 73-69, in 1991.
Tarrant’s squads were the epitome of the team nobody wanted to face in the tournament. Besides sending Syracuse packing, the Spiders also stunned a Charles Barkley-led Auburn team, 72-71, in 1984, and beat defending champion Indiana (72-69) and Georgia Tech (59-55) to reach the regional semifinals in 1988.
“You have to embrace the moment and take advantage of the opportunity when it comes along,” Tarrant said. “When we beat Syracuse, all we knew is we were in the tournament. We didn’t know Syracuse was a No. 2 seed and we were a 15. We were oblivious to that. We just felt we have the chance to play a power team.”
Tarrant took the same approach when his team took down Auburn in 1984. The tournament field consisted of just 48 teams then, with the top four seeds in each region receiving a bye into the second round. His club had to win two games on back-to-back days to capture its conference tournament in Harrisburg, Virginia. Three days later, the Spiders were in Philadelphia to play Rider in a NCAA opening-round game.
Two days after that win, they were in Charlotte, North Carolina, as a 12 seed to face Auburn, which featured future NBA stars Barkley and Chuck Person. The fifth-seeded Tigers were excited because it was the first time their program had competed in the tournament.
“I can’t even remember where we were seeded,” said Greg Turner, then a starting senior forward for Auburn and now an associate director with the NCAA’s First Team program. “I just knew we were favored to win. As the years go by, I see the significance of that game. They used to show it on ESPN Classic all the time. Each year I would watch as if the result was going to change.”
Tarrant, who retired in 1993, still watches the tournament in anticipation of a mid-major pulling off another upset like Bucknell over Kansas in 2005 or Northwestern State (Louisiana) over Iowa last year.
“I told the kids that this is an opportunity that comes once in a lifetime for the Richmonds of the world,” Tarrant said. “It is an opportunity we have to take advantage of by taking good shots, playing great defense and rebounding as best we can.”
While America roots for the underdog, CBS, which has televised the men’s tournament since 1982, pulls for great games because it is good for business. In a perfect scenario, the tournament would include a good mixture of upsets from the little guys and wins from institutions that have large alumni bases. Too many of the former, though, can threaten the big-time ratings draws between the high-profile schools in the later rounds.
“I’ve seen all the blood drained out of CBS executives’ faces through the years,” Gavitt said.
With the single-elimination format, there is just no way to predict where and when the upsets will occur.
“It’s not like they don’t happen in other sporting events,” said CBS on-air personality Seth Davis, who also writes for SI.com. “You just don’t get that David-over-Goliath phenomenon. It happens regularly in the basketball tournament, though. It makes people watch because you never know... Even if it is a 16 versus 1 game — and I think it is just a matter of time before an upset happens there — you want to flip over to see history.”
Seeding has grown to the point where it has become part of the tournament experience. For example, Tennessee senior Dane Bradshaw told Davis one of his biggest athletics thrills was when Tennessee received a No. 2 seed in 2006. Players from past generations can’t relate to that statement.
While upsets have a point of reference for today’s teams, there were others before the days of seeding. Les Robinson, a former committee member and athletics director at The Citadel, points to Cincinnati beating Ohio State in 1961 and 1962 championship games.
“What really made those a big upset was what happened as the years have gone by,” Robinson said. “Ohio State had five players who went on to play professionally, including two of the top 50 players in NBA history in Jerry Lucas and John Havlicek.”
Robinson nearly coached 16th-seeded East Tennessee State past No. 1 Oklahoma in the 1989 tournament before the Buccaneers lost, 72-71, when a shot at the buzzer bounced off the rim.
“A reporter told me afterward that it was the first time in his 28 years of being a writer that he became a fan,” Robinson said. “I’m always pulling for a 16 to do it.”
On that day in the Division I men’s tournament, two No. 1 seeds fell to ninth-seeded teams in the second round and a defending national champion was stunned by a half-court shot at the buzzer.
St. Joseph’s got it started when the ninth-seeded Hawks beat Mideast No. 1 seed DePaul, 49-48.
The game is nicknamed the “Fourth and Shunk” game by St. Joseph’s fans because that is the intersection where John Smith, who made the winning layup in the final seconds, grew up playing basketball.
Ninth-seeded Kansas State followed by downing West No. 1 seed Oregon State, 50-48, on a last-second jump shot by Rolando Blackman.
Blackman’s game-winning baseline jumper was on the cover of Sports Illustrated the next week.
Earlier that day, fifth-seeded Arkansas ended defending national champion and Midwest fourth-seed Louisville’s season, 74-73, on a half-court heave by U.S. Reed that swished through the net as the horn sounded.
Team Year Opponent Score Round
(9) Pennsylvania 1979 (1) North Carolina 72-71 Second
(9) St. Joseph’s 1981 (1) DePaul 49-48 Second
(11) Middle Tennessee 1982 (6) Kentucky 50-44 First
(6) North Carolina St. 1983 (1) Virginia 63-62 Regional final
(6) North Carolina St. 1983 (1) Houston 54-52 Championship
(8) Villanova 1985 (1) Georgetown 66-64 Championship
(15) Richmond 1991 (2) Syracuse 73-69 First
(15) Santa Clara 1993 (2) Arizona 64-61 First
(13) Princeton 1995 (4) UCLA 43-41 First
(15) Coppin St. 1997 (2) South Carolina 78-65 First
(14) Weber St. 1998 (3) North Carolina 76-74 First
(15) Hampton 2001 (2) Iowa St. 58-57 First
(14) Bucknell 2005 (3) Kansas 64-63 First
(13) Vermont 2005 (4) Syracuse 60-57 ot First
(11) George Mason 2006 (1) Connecticut 86-84 ot Regional final
In addition to the upsets that did occur, following are some memorable near-misses:
Team Year Opponent Score Round
(16) Princeton 1989 (1) Georgetown 50-49 First
(16) East Tennessee St. 1989 (1) Oklahoma 72-71 First
(16) Murray St. 1990 (1) Michigan St. 75-71 ot First
(15) Winthrop 2006 (2) Tennessee 63-61 First
(15) Coppin St. 1997 (10) Texas 82-81 Second
(12) Butler 2000 (5) Florida 69-68 ot First
While major upsets haven’t been as numerous in the women’s tournament, they have been just as dramatic, including the only instance in which a No. 16 took down a top seed:
Team Year Opponent Score Round
(8) Missouri St. 1992 (1) Iowa 61-60 ot Second
(8) Missouri St. 1992 (2) Mississippi 94-71 Regional final
(6) Alabama 1994 (1) Penn St. 96-82 Regional final
(16) Harvard 1998 (1) Stanford 71-67 First
(9) Arkansas 1998 (2) Duke 77-72 Regional final
(13) Liberty 2005 (4) Penn St. 78-70 First
(13) Liberty 2005 (5) DePaul 88-79 Second
While seeding teams, which started in 1979, added integrity to the process of crowning a national champion, some unintended byproducts occurred that have helped put the madness in March.
They’re called upsets, Cinderalla stories and buzzer-beaters. And they make or break hearts, ratings and dreams.
Upsets have a point of reference thanks to seeding. So when an eight-seed Villanova wins the national title or 11--seed George Mason advances to the Final Four, it puts some perspective on the accomplishment.
On the men’s side, prognosticators ponder which 16-seed will finally break through and beat a No. 1 seed, like No. 16 Harvard did in the women’s championship in 1998.
It’s what helps define the tournaments — particularly the first Thursday through Tuesday when the nation’s heartbeat quickens during 96 potential David-beats-Goliath scenarios.
Sometimes the magic strikes in dramatic fashion, such as when 13-seed Valparaiso’s Bryce Drew hit a jump shot at the buzzer to sink No. 4 Mississippi in the first round in 1998. Sometimes the magic is extended, such as when the No. 13 Liberty women’s team advanced to the regional semifinals in 2005.
“America still loves the underdog,” said Dave Gavitt, a former chair of the men’s committee. “That is a natural phenomenon in sports. People also respect the integrity of the tournament and of the process. No one is trying to rig this.”
Gavitt, a member of the committee from 1979-84, noticed right away the benefits of seeding the tournament. The committee felt something needed to be done to keep regional powers from facing each other early. There were times in the 1970s where the Big Ten Conference champion, the Southeastern Conference champion and strong independent programs like Marquette and DePaul were all placed in the Mideast portion of the bracket.
“The decision to go to seeding allowed us to be comfortable moving teams out of their natural areas,” Gavitt said. “It created some amazing intersectional matchups in the early rounds that we never had before. That was compelling for the tournament, for television and for media coverage.”
It also boosted competitive equity in the field.
“Each tournament writes its own story,” Gavitt said. “I’ve always told the people who have followed me on the committee that if they did a good job in their seeding, the tournament will take care of itself.” ‘It’s good!’
One of the most replayed buzzer-beaters is Drew’s game-winning three-pointer that gave the nation’s instantly loved “Valpo” a 70-69 win over fourth-seeded Mississippi.
Facing a two-point deficit and having to go the length of the court in under three seconds with no timeouts, the senior-laden Valparaiso team knew to pull the play named “Pacer” from its playbook. Homer Drew, Bryce’s dad and head coach, was proud he didn’t have to tell his club what to do, even though it faced long odds.
Jamie Sykes threw a three-quartercourt pass to Bill Jenkins, who touched-passed to the onrushing Drew for the three-pointer.
“We’d go five-on-zero in practice and couldn’t make that play work,” Homer Drew said. “What you saw on television was the best it ever worked. I was in direct line when he took the shot, and it looked like it was going to be short. I believe all the prayers in that arena gave it enough air to get it over the rim. If you look at it closely, the ball does hit the front of the rim and goes in.”
Drew’s club then beat Florida State, 83-77, in overtime to advance to the Midwest regional semifinal. They also caught the imagination of a nation, who found out about a small Division I institution in northwest Indiana.
“The beauty of March Madness is that it is the most exciting venue in sports,” Drew said. “People are excited about the underdog. They wonder, ‘Can 3 beat 14, or when is 16 going to beat 1?’ ”
While the latter hasn’t been accomplished in the men’s tournament, the women have proven it can be done. Surprisingly, it happened during an era in which the top seeds played at home. Harvard, led by all-American Allison Feaster, traveled 3,000 miles and pulled off arguably the biggest upset in either the men’s or women’s tournaments. The Crimson’s 71-67 win over the Cardinal not only is the lone victory by a 16 seed, but it also came at Stanford’s Maples Pavilion, where the Cardinal had a 59-game win streak snapped.
Feaster, the nation’s leading scorer that season, scored 35 points to spearhead Harvard’s amazing win.
Harvard coach Kathy Delaney-Smith said a late-game adjustment on defense helped clinch the game.
“We changed to a zone in the last minute of the game, because (Stanford center) Olympia Scott started to heat up. We didn’t want her isolated on one of our players, so we took a chance. I remember thinking we are going to live or die with this decision.”
Delaney-Smith said the foundation for her team’s upset was built the year before when her team had to play a first-round game at North Carolina, led by point guard Marion Jones.
“We were down 20-something at halftime, and I was amazed that my players truly believed they could come back,” Delaney-Smith said. “We staged a couple of comebacks, and they had to keep their starters in. We were respectable.” She also knew she had Feaster returning for her senior season. To this day, the Harvard program still relishes the moment.
“We take pride in it, because it was on Stanford’s home court,” Delaney-Smith said. “We women have been trying to get neutral sites to even the playing field, because the rich get richer when you can play on your home court. But the Harvard-Stanford matchup took place in one of the best venues in the country, and it was great.”
Perhaps no one in NCAA tournament history has pulled off more stunners than former Richmond coach Dick Tarrant. The Spiders won games seeded as low as 12, 13 and 14 — and they were the first 15 seed to win a game in the men’s tournament when they took down second-seeded Syracuse, 73-69, in 1991.
Tarrant’s squads were the epitome of the team nobody wanted to face in the tournament. Besides sending Syracuse packing, the Spiders also stunned a Charles Barkley-led Auburn team, 72-71, in 1984, and beat defending champion Indiana (72-69) and Georgia Tech (59-55) to reach the regional semifinals in 1988.
“You have to embrace the moment and take advantage of the opportunity when it comes along,” Tarrant said. “When we beat Syracuse, all we knew is we were in the tournament. We didn’t know Syracuse was a No. 2 seed and we were a 15. We were oblivious to that. We just felt we have the chance to play a power team.”
Tarrant took the same approach when his team took down Auburn in 1984. The tournament field consisted of just 48 teams then, with the top four seeds in each region receiving a bye into the second round. His club had to win two games on back-to-back days to capture its conference tournament in Harrisburg, Virginia. Three days later, the Spiders were in Philadelphia to play Rider in a NCAA opening-round game.
Two days after that win, they were in Charlotte, North Carolina, as a 12 seed to face Auburn, which featured future NBA stars Barkley and Chuck Person. The fifth-seeded Tigers were excited because it was the first time their program had competed in the tournament.
“I can’t even remember where we were seeded,” said Greg Turner, then a starting senior forward for Auburn and now an associate director with the NCAA’s First Team program. “I just knew we were favored to win. As the years go by, I see the significance of that game. They used to show it on ESPN Classic all the time. Each year I would watch as if the result was going to change.”
Tarrant, who retired in 1993, still watches the tournament in anticipation of a mid-major pulling off another upset like Bucknell over Kansas in 2005 or Northwestern State (Louisiana) over Iowa last year.
“I told the kids that this is an opportunity that comes once in a lifetime for the Richmonds of the world,” Tarrant said. “It is an opportunity we have to take advantage of by taking good shots, playing great defense and rebounding as best we can.”
While America roots for the underdog, CBS, which has televised the men’s tournament since 1982, pulls for great games because it is good for business. In a perfect scenario, the tournament would include a good mixture of upsets from the little guys and wins from institutions that have large alumni bases. Too many of the former, though, can threaten the big-time ratings draws between the high-profile schools in the later rounds.
“I’ve seen all the blood drained out of CBS executives’ faces through the years,” Gavitt said.
With the single-elimination format, there is just no way to predict where and when the upsets will occur.
“It’s not like they don’t happen in other sporting events,” said CBS on-air personality Seth Davis, who also writes for SI.com. “You just don’t get that David-over-Goliath phenomenon. It happens regularly in the basketball tournament, though. It makes people watch because you never know... Even if it is a 16 versus 1 game — and I think it is just a matter of time before an upset happens there — you want to flip over to see history.”
Seeding has grown to the point where it has become part of the tournament experience. For example, Tennessee senior Dane Bradshaw told Davis one of his biggest athletics thrills was when Tennessee received a No. 2 seed in 2006. Players from past generations can’t relate to that statement.
While upsets have a point of reference for today’s teams, there were others before the days of seeding. Les Robinson, a former committee member and athletics director at The Citadel, points to Cincinnati beating Ohio State in 1961 and 1962 championship games.
“What really made those a big upset was what happened as the years have gone by,” Robinson said. “Ohio State had five players who went on to play professionally, including two of the top 50 players in NBA history in Jerry Lucas and John Havlicek.”
Robinson nearly coached 16th-seeded East Tennessee State past No. 1 Oklahoma in the 1989 tournament before the Buccaneers lost, 72-71, when a shot at the buzzer bounced off the rim.
“A reporter told me afterward that it was the first time in his 28 years of being a writer that he became a fan,” Robinson said. “I’m always pulling for a 16 to do it.”
Pass the Pepto, please
If you’re looking for a day that will live in upset infamy, March 14, 1981, is a good start.On that day in the Division I men’s tournament, two No. 1 seeds fell to ninth-seeded teams in the second round and a defending national champion was stunned by a half-court shot at the buzzer.
St. Joseph’s got it started when the ninth-seeded Hawks beat Mideast No. 1 seed DePaul, 49-48.
The game is nicknamed the “Fourth and Shunk” game by St. Joseph’s fans because that is the intersection where John Smith, who made the winning layup in the final seconds, grew up playing basketball.
Ninth-seeded Kansas State followed by downing West No. 1 seed Oregon State, 50-48, on a last-second jump shot by Rolando Blackman.
Blackman’s game-winning baseline jumper was on the cover of Sports Illustrated the next week.
Earlier that day, fifth-seeded Arkansas ended defending national champion and Midwest fourth-seed Louisville’s season, 74-73, on a half-court heave by U.S. Reed that swished through the net as the horn sounded.
Upstart upsets
The late NCAA director of statistics Jim Van Valkenberg defined an upset in the basketball tournaments as the winner of the game being seeded five or more places lower than the team it defeated (seeding began in 1979). With that criterion in mind, here are some of the most memorable upsets in the Division I Men’s Basketball Championship:Team Year Opponent Score Round
(9) Pennsylvania 1979 (1) North Carolina 72-71 Second
(9) St. Joseph’s 1981 (1) DePaul 49-48 Second
(11) Middle Tennessee 1982 (6) Kentucky 50-44 First
(6) North Carolina St. 1983 (1) Virginia 63-62 Regional final
(6) North Carolina St. 1983 (1) Houston 54-52 Championship
(8) Villanova 1985 (1) Georgetown 66-64 Championship
(15) Richmond 1991 (2) Syracuse 73-69 First
(15) Santa Clara 1993 (2) Arizona 64-61 First
(13) Princeton 1995 (4) UCLA 43-41 First
(15) Coppin St. 1997 (2) South Carolina 78-65 First
(14) Weber St. 1998 (3) North Carolina 76-74 First
(15) Hampton 2001 (2) Iowa St. 58-57 First
(14) Bucknell 2005 (3) Kansas 64-63 First
(13) Vermont 2005 (4) Syracuse 60-57 ot First
(11) George Mason 2006 (1) Connecticut 86-84 ot Regional final
In addition to the upsets that did occur, following are some memorable near-misses:
Team Year Opponent Score Round
(16) Princeton 1989 (1) Georgetown 50-49 First
(16) East Tennessee St. 1989 (1) Oklahoma 72-71 First
(16) Murray St. 1990 (1) Michigan St. 75-71 ot First
(15) Winthrop 2006 (2) Tennessee 63-61 First
(15) Coppin St. 1997 (10) Texas 82-81 Second
(12) Butler 2000 (5) Florida 69-68 ot First
While major upsets haven’t been as numerous in the women’s tournament, they have been just as dramatic, including the only instance in which a No. 16 took down a top seed:
Team Year Opponent Score Round
(8) Missouri St. 1992 (1) Iowa 61-60 ot Second
(8) Missouri St. 1992 (2) Mississippi 94-71 Regional final
(6) Alabama 1994 (1) Penn St. 96-82 Regional final
(16) Harvard 1998 (1) Stanford 71-67 First
(9) Arkansas 1998 (2) Duke 77-72 Regional final
(13) Liberty 2005 (4) Penn St. 78-70 First
(13) Liberty 2005 (5) DePaul 88-79 Second
© 2010 The National Collegiate Athletic Association
Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy