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Much has changed in intercollegiate athletics since Theodore Roosevelt brought about the creation of the NCAA in 1906.
Among many other things, football players now wear proper equipment, the NCAA has federated its governance structure to give each of three distinct divisions more autonomy over their policy-making decisions and the number of championships the Association sponsors has swelled to 88.
To be sure, though, some things have remained the same: Harvard and Yale still compete in one of the nation's biggest football rivalries; academic standards, amateurism, recruiting and competitive equity continue as high-profile issues in college sports; and the student-athlete -- the focus of NCAA attention for 100 years -- remains at the center of all the Association does.
As the NCAA enters its second century then, who better to ask about the future than recent graduates from the fields and courts who are now in decision-making roles in athletics administration.
What will college sports look like in five years? 10? 50?
What will be the dominant issues in the next decade?
Will higher education be the same tomorrow as it is today?
As years have ticked away and the number of NCAA student-athletes has blossomed to more than 360,000, the passion that young people bring to intercollegiate athletics has reached new heights. And many young athletics administrators are gazing beyond the bend, eager to see how their enterprise will grow in the years to come.
Some say there will be fewer barriers than there are now.
"In the future, we won't even have to educate about Title IX, because there's so much equality right now," said Liz McCaslin, a former volleyball standout at the University of Kentucky and now a marketing associate at Stanford University. "I don't think gender equity will be an issue in 20 years. It's going to be expected that there will be equal opportunities."
Twenty-five years have passed since the NCAA began sponsoring women's championships. A lot has changed in that time to ensure equal opportunities for women in higher education, and Bridget Niland is grateful for all that Title IX has done and will continue to do.
"I benefited greatly from Title IX and I have a deep appreciation for the women who were years ahead of me, my sister being one of them. There's a 20-year age difference between us and she didn't have the opportunities I had," said Niland, a former distance runner at the State University of New York at Buffalo. "I think my children will have even more opportunities. As Title IX ages, it's going to benefit more and more women and it's going to draw in more and more people."
Niland earned respect from athletics administrators when, as chair of the Division I Student-Athlete Advisory Committee in 1998, she spearheaded a movement that led to legislation allowing student-athletes to hold jobs during the academic year.
She parlayed her SAAC leadership skills into an administrative career at the NCAA national office, where she became an associate director on the membership services staff and a fixture at the Division I legislative table. She currently serves as a contractor for the membership services staff.
In addition to Title IX changing the course of participation, Niland said the landmark law also is changing the way Americans appreciate and support women's athletics. Now, she said, fathers are not only encouraging their daughters to play, they're also playing active roles in their daughters' athletics lives.
"Twenty or 30 years ago, there weren't fathers out there watching their daughters play soccer. Now, they're out there not only watching, but coaching them," Niland said. "They're getting involved and becoming fans of the sport. Women's sports are going forward at a steady pace and I think we'll continue to see a burgeoning interest, not only from participants, but from a spectator standpoint as well."
Niland believes that fan support will take women's athletics to an unprecedented level over the next few decades, but she doesn't think women's sports will ever reach the popularity of some of the higher-profile men's sports.
"Women's sports are 50 years behind men's basketball and football," Niland said. "They're still miles apart."
McCaslin agrees that women's sports will continue to grow, but doesn't share Niland's confidence that interest from the public will increase. She sees some of the focus from athletics departments shifting from the traditional revenue-producing sports, but she doesn't believe that shift will be met with increased enthusiasm from the public.
"I hate to say it, but I don't think there will be more interest from the public in 20 or 30 years. I believe there will be more prominence in sports like women's basketball and volleyball, and that's because there are just so many more athletes than there were years ago," McCaslin said.
John Semararo, current chair of the Division II Student-Athlete Advisory Committee, believes that the investment the NCAA has made through increased academic and leadership programs for student-athletes will pay dividends.
"From a diversity perspective, I feel the opportunities the NCAA is currently providing are going to pay extreme benefits," Semararo said. "I strongly feel that 20 or 30 years from now we will be at a point where we won't have to worry about the lack of diversity among coaches and administrators because of the programs the NCAA currently has in place."
Niland isn't as optimistic.
"I don't think we're on good footing for women or minority coaches. I do think we're on better footing for minorities because the issue is in the media and people are taking notice of it," Niland said. "People haven't taken much notice that the number of female coaches has dropped. Only recently have we started to see that issue coming out."
Over time, more men have begun coaching women's teams, a trend that has not been reciprocated. Some people feel that could change, however.
"I think women coaching men could come eventually in sports like cross country and tennis," said Melissa Kelly, athletics director at Division III Wesleyan College (Georgia). "I just don't think we'll see women coaching football. Coaches stem from being participants themselves, and since there are few opportunities for women in football, I don't see it happening."
Niland said, "I see it as a possibility that women will coach men. Can I envision women coaching Division I men's basketball in 50 years? I struggle with it because of the challenges that are sometimes unique to being a woman in this industry."
Commercial stress on collegiate model
While some see the face of college sports diversifying in the future, others worry that the financial pressures on the enterprise will pick away at the foundation built over the last century.
In recent years, intercollegiate athletics has become more commercialized. With the increased costs of running a competitive and broad-based athletics program, institutions are looking for private sources to fund their operations.
"I definitely see college sports moving more in that direction, especially with all the additional sponsorship opportunities we're going to see," said McCaslin. "Right now, Stanford has forged a partnership with Viacom sports in which they give us $2 million for sponsorships. I see that as the way of the future. We'll be outsourcing our naming rights to different companies to create more revenue."
Semararo believes such demands for more revenue will only increase the pressure on the collegiate model.
"In the future, while capital campaigns and corporate deals are vital to the success of athletics programs and institutions, as more funds are generated, pressures to succeed on the field will continue to grow," said the former Division II golf and soccer student-athlete at Saint Leo University.
That "arms race" mentality bothers Niland.
"The divide between the haves and the have-nots is getting wider. I compare it to a marathon, where the pace is getting quicker and people are starting to fall. There are going to be schools that just can't keep up with other schools down the street. We're already seeing it happen," Niland said.
Niland, a self-proclaimed "purist," worries that the increased reliance on commercialism and privatization will change the landscape of intercollegiate athletics, and not necessarily for the better.
Until a few years ago, former student-athletes and coaches were prevalent in athletics administration. Now, as athletics departments race to find new sources of revenue, people who haven't been in college athletics are taking over some of the decision-making positions.
"We lose something when we get too big. We lose something when we get too commercial," Niland said. "If we continue down this commercialization route, we risk losing the type of person who comes in to teach a young person -- who considers himself a teacher and a coach. It scares me that we could lose that educational element. We're losing our former student-athletes and former coaches in this business. If we go down the commercialization route, we're not going to attract the educators. We need a healthy balance."
McCaslin agreed, adding that it helps for athletics administrators to have had a student-athlete experience.
"I think it's important to have gone through what the people you're guiding have gone through," she said.
Membership growth
According to Wesleyan's Kelly, Division I hasn't cornered the market on the arms race. She said some Division III institutions are pouring more money than ever before into their own programs, creating a divide within the Association's largest membership division.
"I would say that there's been greater emphasis on wins and losses," she said. "Everyone strives to be a national champion, but if the philosophy says academics first, student-athletes shouldn't be missing as many classes as they do and perhaps we shouldn't be playing as many competitions as we are."
Kelly, a former basketball student-athlete at Hood College, believes that in the next decade or two, Division III won't exist in its current form.
"I think Division III will have to make a split. The mission of the schools seems to be very different. At Wesleyan, we appreciate competitiveness, but we won't give up our academics. A lot more money is put into athletics programs at other Division III schools and I don't see how we can ever be competitive with schools that have made that investment."
Some regard the idea of a Division IV as a scary thought. Kelly isn't one of them.
"Considering the number of schools in Division III, they shouldn't all be competing against one another. I would think that a fourth division should have an emphasis on more recreational competition and maybe lesser standards for the amount of competition. I think there are some schools that just want to let the kids play and have the experience rather than concentrating on wins and losses," Kelly said.
Division II is facing membership issues of its own. Several Division II schools have reclassified to Division I in the last five years. But Division II SAAC's Semararo believes that in the next 20 or 30 years, Division II will actually attract more schools.
"As more institutions continue to learn more about the opportunities being offered, Division II will concentrate on gaining rather than losing institutions," said Semararo, now a graduate student in the sports management program at Ohio University. "One thing that will be exciting is the increase of Divisions II and III events that will be nationally televised. The demand for college athletics will be there, no matter the division."
With all of the changes that have taken place during the NCAA's first 100 years, is it far-fetched to believe that the most popular NCAA sport in 2106 will be quidditch, the magical game created by J.K. Rowling in the best-selling Harry Potter series? Is it possible that quidditch could sell out 250,000-seat stadiums and be the next big revenue-producing sport?
More likely, Niland says, is that lacrosse will become the next big draw.
"If you track championship attendance for lacrosse over the past few years, each year it's getting closer and closer to selling out a large stadium," Niland said. "Lacrosse began in the Northeast and its popularity is starting to spread to the Midwest, and more and more people are starting to play. It has the excitement of soccer, the physical aspects of football and the technique of basketball with all the cuts and moves. I think we're going to see more young people -- men and women -- become more interested in lacrosse."
Perhaps there's no telling what to expect if the next 100 years of intercollegiate athletics are as exciting and unpredictable as the first.
Maybe there will be a Division IV, or women coaching football, or perhaps a new, exciting game played on brooms. One thing is for sure, student-athletes will be in the middle of it.
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