Calculation including transfers provides truer measure of graduation

First-year data from the NCAA's new Graduation/Success Rate (GSR) show that about three-fourths of Division I student-athletes are getting their diplomas.

The highly anticipated GSR is a new NCAA graduation-rate metric that enhances the federally mandated graduation-rates methodology by including transfer data in the calculation. It was developed in response to college presidents who wanted a graduation rate that more accurately reflects the increased movement among students in today's higher education climate. Research indicates that complex patterns of college attendance are becoming the norm for U.S. college students -- it has been estimated that about 60 percent of all new bachelor's degree recipients are attending more than one undergraduate institution (two-year or four-year) during their collegiate careers.

The first release of GSR data includes team scores only, and not an aggregate score for each institution. Team scores are available at www.ncaa.org. The Division I Board of Directors deliberately chose that approach to focus initially on teams as the unit of analysis. Institutional GSRs will be released in January, along with the federal graduation rates.

Overall GSR results indicate that after accounting for transfers into Division I institutions and accommodating institutions with students who leave while academically eligible, about three-fourths of all Division I student-athletes are known to have received a bachelor's degree. The actual success rate is 76 percent in all of Division I and within Division I-A, 73 percent in Division I-AA and 79 percent in Division I-AAA.

Those figures are higher than the graduation rates in the federal calculation (about 62 percent for all Division I student-athletes) because the federally mandated methodology counts all transfers as nongraduates from their initial institution. At the same time, transfers who enter an institution are not included in the federal calculation at all. By not accounting for transfers in or transfers out, most presidents believe that the federal graduation rate fails to adequately assess the academic success of those students who are actually participating in Division I athletics.

The GSR accounts for such circumstances in a way that reflects more accurately on the institution.

"Under the federal methodology, a student-athlete who transfers from one Division I college to another is treated as a nongraduate at the first and is ignored in the calculation at the second even if he or she graduates," said Todd Petr, NCAA managing director of research. "Similarly, a two-year transfer into a Division I institution is never included in that school's federal graduation-rate calculation. Given the mobility of today's students, the GSR is simply a more defensible methodology.

"The federal graduation rate takes a strong institutional perspective in judging academic success -- among those students who entered your institution as traditional freshmen, how many stayed and received their degree there? The GSR reflects a movement toward a student-centered rate -- what proportion of the students who have been in the system at some point end up obtaining their degree from any of our institutions?"

A complementary rate

Including incoming transfers is an important change because it now holds institutions accountable for their academic success. Transfers who fail academically count against an institution's GSR.

Petr said that critics who claim the GSR is a method to artificially inflate graduation rates should closely examine the team-by-team data. In a number of cases, he said, team GSRs will be lower than the corresponding federal rate if the team relies heavily on transfers and does not pay attention to their academic progress.

"The way incoming transfers affect a team's GSR is an important distinction," Petr said. "The new metric holds institutions accountable for the academic success of all student-athletes enrolled at a given time. It is a mistake to assume that the GSR for every team will be higher than the federal rate."

Because it believes the GSR is a more accurate methodology, the NCAA has appealed to the U.S. Department of Education -- the body responsible for the federal graduation-rates calculation -- to adopt the new rate, but the department has to date resisted the change. Thus, NCAA officials are treating the GSR not as a replacement for the federal rate, but as a supplemental rate they believe provides a broader and more accurate snapshot of student-athlete academic success.

Petr said the total number of students included in GSR compared with the total in the federal cohort is evidence that the GSR is a more reflective rate. For the four-year span that encompasses the current data (entering classes from 1995-98), there were 67,219 students tracked within the federal cohort. Within the GSR, however, the initial cohort for those years is 90,999 students -- an increase of about 35 percent.

"Clearly, the federal methodology has been missing a significant number of scholarship student-athletes who are competing on NCAA teams," Petr said.

NCAA President Myles Brand called the GSR a complementary rate to the federal methodology that responds to a presidential need.

"The GSR complements the federal rate and responds to a request from college presidents to more accurately depict transfer trends in higher education," Brand said. "The NCAA is not going to stop releasing rates based on the federal methodology; however, we are continuing our appeals to the Department of Education to adopt what we believe is a better approach."

Brand said the federal methodology also maintains some value because it is the only rate by which to compare student-athlete success with student body success. "While the GSR is a more accurate rate for student-athletes, there is no comparable measure to date for the student body that tracks transfers the way the GSR does," he said.

Preliminary federal rates

Both the federal rate and the GSR track the most recent cohort, the entering class of 1998-99. Preliminary data from the federal methodology shows student-athletes graduating at a rate of 62 percent.

It also appears that the federal rates for football and men's basketball student-athletes in the 1998-99 cohort will remain steady -- about 54 percent and 44 percent, respectively. The latter continues to be the lowest for any sport.

The GSRs within both sports show that more student-athletes are actually graduating than reflected by the federal rate -- 64 percent in Division I football (65 percent in Division I-A, 63 percent in Division I-AA) and 58 percent in men's basketball. Those two sports, however, still show the lowest rates by sport in the GSR calculation. Baseball and wrestling are next at 65 and 66 percent, respectively.

The top three sports in the Division I GSR are women's lacrosse (94 percent), and women's gymnastics, field hockey and women's fencing (93 percent). Women's swimming and diving also eclipsed the 90-percent mark (91 percent). Lacrosse (89 percent) was the top men's sport.