As the crown jewel in the NCAA's collection of championships, the Division I Men's Basketball Championship commands attention from rabid, die-hard fans and casual observers alike. But a glance at the declining television ratings for the Final Four championship game in recent years might lead to speculation about whether the diamond is beginning to lose some of its sparkle, at least for television viewers.

This year's national title game between Syracuse University and the University of Kansas drew the lowest rating yet for a championship game since 1975. In fact, the six lowest-rated finals have occurred in the past six years.

Such news might make some number crunchers wince. But experts say that the declining numbers may have less to do with the event and more to do with factors that affect the general television industry.

Scott R. Fisher, director of sports and affiliate research at CBS, points to a highly competitive environment as one reason for the ratings dip. In addition to an explosion of television channels available for the average viewer, he also notes that more than 95 percent of the homes in the country are equipped with remote control devices.

"What will happen, and we've seen this with our ratings, if game action isn't compelling, if the game turns into a blowout or something, the people who are the lighter viewers of the tournament are going to have itchy trigger fingers and they're going to have a tendency to switch around a little bit more," Fisher said.

More viewing, not more surfing

Glenn Enoch, vice-president for audience research at ESPN, referred to statistics from Nielsen Media Research, which indicate the number of channels in an average U.S. household grew from 17 in 1984 to 40 in 1994 to 102 in 2002. Other considerations, he said, include the expanding cable penetration and the availability of satellite subscription and digital television.

But Enoch contends that the shift in ratings is not due to people watching less television.

"It's important to understand that the amount of television viewing has actually increased over the past 10 years or so," he said. "The idea that ratings are declining stems from the fact that what people are watching has changed. The average number of channels being viewed hasn't changed all that much."

Enoch, referencing Nielsen Media Research statistics from TV Audience, 2002, said that in 1994, the average household tuned 10.2 channels in a week. Eight years later, that increased to just 14.8, despite the fact that the average home was getting 150 percent more channels. Enoch's conclusion: People are watching more television, but not more channels. Rather, they're just watching different channels.

Counting other viewers

Further, while the shift in viewership from broadcast networks to cable networks has been well-documented, the switch has not, according to Enoch, affected all types of programming in the same way.

"If you make an apples-to-apples comparison (that is, looking at networks with ratings in 1997), sports ratings have increased over the past five years, while ratings for other genres have declined," he said.

For instance, ratings for the Women's Final Four, which airs on ESPN, have increased over the last five years.

All of those factors do nothing to allay the ongoing concern that a significant portion of the viewership, especially sports viewers, is going unmeasured.

Since 1987, Nielsen has relied on devices called people meters to capture audience viewing data for the national markets. People meters replaced household ratings meters, which required only that people turn on their televisions and whatever it was tuned to was what was recorded.

People meters have enhanced accuracy because each person in the household is assigned a button. When the television is turned on, each person watching is required to log in via his or her button. There are even buttons designated for visitors to cover situations like Final Four viewing parties.

Barbara Zidovsky, a senior vice-president at Nielsen Media Research, says the meters enhance the reliability of the information being captured.

"It's more reliable because every single time you change the channel, there is a prompt that come up that asks if someone is still in the room and what they are watching," said Zidovsky. "Not only that but if there are not any switches or channel changes, it comes up and asks if you are still there."

Nielsen is in the process of expanding its use of people meters into the top 10 local markets in the United States within the next three years. Currently, data from 55 local markets are still collected by the household ratings meters. Also, in order to gather demographic information, Nielsen uses paper diaries in those 55 markets as well, in addition to sending out diaries to collect data on viewing patterns in the remaining 165 markets.

As the meters permeate the local markets, the more precise ratings information enjoyed nationally as well as the immediate availability of the information, will also hold true for local markets.

"Right now the local methodology is based on average quarter-hour ratings. On the national level, we get minute-by-minute ratings," Zidovsky said. "With the meters, you're getting instantaneous information. You don't have to wait for the diaries to be processed two months after the fact. For example, the November sweeps, you don't start getting your data until the end of December. But with metered information, you get it the next day."

Research to be more accurate

To bring the point closer to home, the technology allows Nielsen to track how many households tune in to see which teams are crowned on the hardwoods each March.

"We would be able to tell how many households where people saw the beginning part of the tournament versus how many people only saw the final game. We are able to pull that information right from the people meter," Zidovsky said.

Beyond being able to receive more precise ratings more instantaneously, what might the expansion of people meters into the local markets mean for Final Four ratings in the future?

"It shouldn't make a big impact because Nielsen has already been using the technology on the national sample since 1987," said Fisher.

Enoch agrees that ratings shouldn't budge much.

"Nielsen is providing ESPN with 'demonstration data' -- what our current ratings would look like with their weighting scheme, so we can evaluate the effects of weighting," he said. "We are seeing very little change in our numbers, and would expect very little effect on our numbers next March."

The question still remains, despite the technology, as how to tell whether there's a chunk of unmeasured audience out there, a chunk that could perhaps nudge the ratings upward.

"Where Nielsen falls short, especially in terms of sports viewing, is that they only measure TV viewing in primary residences," said Enoch. "Whatever viewing is done in hotels, in dorm rooms, in restaurants and bars, goes unmeasured."

Fisher also is concerned that the out-of-home viewers are not being fully tallied.

"Nielsen, especially for the tournament, doesn't measure dormitory viewing because it's not a set household," he said. "A dorm room is obviously going to turn over once or twice a semester and Nielsen likes to keep you in the panel for, I believe, two years. So that's obviously a concern for us that that viewership is not counted in the overall ratings."

ESPN already has developed a system for measuring total television audiences, which includes viewing in the home and out. In its most recent findings from a fall 2002 study, the cable network discovered 17.2 million men watched television in unmeasured out-of-home locations in an average week.

"Specifically, 3.6 million are watching ESPN in unmeasured locations outside the home -- more than any other cable network," Enoch said. "ESPN's average audience is increased an average of 9 percent due to simultaneous out-of-home viewing."

Zidovsky said Nielsen is still investigating the concept of out-of-measurement.

"We've done a number of studies, a lot of custom studies, but nothing has been finalized or put into works. But that is another thing we are going to investigate," she said.

In the meantime, the research company is moving forward with plans to begin gathering extended home measurement. This means meters will be installed not only in the primary residences of Nielsen families but also in their second homes as well. In addition, Nielsen is planning to install meters in the campus dwellings of Nielsen families with children away at school. Nielsen also is developing technology called active/passive meters, in which a computer installed in the television could identify a member of the household.

In the end, then, perhaps any future ratings boost for NCAA championships such as the Final Fours will not come from last-second shots, but from a more timely and more accurate count of who's watching them.

Many viewers of big-time sporting events, such as the Men's and Women's Final Fours, watch the games from sports bars, hotels or parties. Those viewers, however, currently are not included in data researchers use to determine television ratings.