The Division II Graduation-Rates Project Team is recommending that the division conduct a second pilot study of an adjusted graduation-rate report.

The project team reached the decision at a September 22-23 meeting after concluding that some of the data need to be better understood, that more information needs to be acquired in certain areas and that other approaches need to be tested with timing and with the survey instrument.

Whatever issues exist do not relate to a lack of response from the membership, which responded at a rate of 70 percent (184 of 261 institutions surveyed).

"The membership stepped up to the plate on the pilot," said Mike Racy, Division II chief of staff. "The response rate was outstanding, especially considering that the participants were required to conduct some research to complete the form."

The bottom line is that 54.9 percent of student-athletes measured by the method set forth in the federal Student Right-to-Know Act (athletes receiving financial aid, transfers-in not counted, transfers-out counted as not graduating) graduated within six years of initial enrollment. Using a system that would measure student-athletes not receiving financial aid, that would measure graduation rates for incoming transfer students and that would exclude outgoing transfers who left while NCAA eligible, the figure climbed to 69.3 percent.

At first glance, the figure appears to do exactly what the Division II leadership envisioned when it authorized the study: to show that Division II student-athletes are performing better in the classroom than the federally required study would suggest. Moreover, the numbers do not increase so much that the adjusted study could be portrayed as being self-serving.

However, the route to the 14.4 percent improvement involved an unexpected turn, which is part of the reason the project team wants a second pilot.

The twist is that the inclusion of student-athletes not receiving aid and transfers-in lowered the graduation rate by about 2 percent. The increase to 69.3 percent was achieved by a bump of about 15 percent that was brought about by excluding student-athletes who left Division II institutions while NCAA eligible.

The conventional wisdom at the outset of the study was that the federal method of measuring graduation rates presents a misleading impression of Division II performance since it does not measure a large number of student-athletes who are not receiving athletically related financial aid. The assumption has been that the non-aid group would graduate at a high level -- a premise that appeared to be supported through a preliminary study conducted earlier in the year.

That may still be the case, but the pilot study did not separate graduation outcomes for transfers-in and student-athletes not receiving aid. Taken together, those groups lowered the rate by about 2 percent.

Other research has shown that transfers from four-year institutions graduate at a higher rate than other Division II student-athletes, so this most recent finding may suggest that two-year transfers are graduating at an exceptionally low level -- one low enough to suppress the overall rate. If so, that is an important finding that eventually could influence Division II academic policy.

"We can't sort that information out in this pilot, and we want to sort it out," said Tony Capon, project team chair and faculty athletics representative at the University of Pittsburgh, Johnstown. "We also want to look in more detail at the racial and gen-
der differences that we're finding."

Capon said the project team also wants to get more specific information on certain sports, to simplify the form and to conduct the data collection in the spring rather than the summer to determine optimum timing.

Transfer-out information

The pilot study was effective in providing information about outgoing transfers. The federal method simply counts them as not having graduated. That has been a sensitive point with the Divisions I and II memberships, which contend that such a blanket approach distorts the totals in a punitive way.

The 15 percent-plus increase noted in the pilot is the most liberal possible interpretation for measuring outgoing transfers since it excludes every transfer-out who left an institution while NCAA-eligible.

To narrow that figure, the project team mailed the names of the 430 student-athletes who transferred out while NCAA-eligible to the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC), which provided the following findings:

Student-athletes found in NSC database

Confirmed transfer to another institution within one year 200

Confirmed transfer after one year 71

Match only at original institu tion 60

Confirmed transfer, but record blocked 16

Total matches 347

(80.5 percent of total)

Student-athletes not found in NSC database

No match by NSC or institution 64

No match by NSC, but institution reported transfer 12

No SSN (foreign S/As) 7

Total non-matches 83

Those figures appear to establish that the NSC is a viable tool with which to track transfer students. Of the 430 student-athletes who were identified as transferring while NCAA-eligible, the NSC determined that 80.5 percent subsequently re-enrolled, most of them within a year.

While the 80.5 percent match rate is slightly lower than anticipated (the preliminary study was about 10 percent higher), the number is as low as it can be since the NSC's records do not extend far beyond the survey period; in future years, the number of matches will increase sharply as the NSC database expands.

"Obviously, you do not need the clearinghouse if you simply exclude student-athletes who left while NCAA-eligible," Racy said. "The value could rest in public relations by reinforcing that not only were student-athletes in good academic standing at the time they left but that they actually progressed toward completing their degrees."

The membership will have an opportunity to review the pilot study in depth at the 2003 NCAA Convention in Anaheim, California. Two sessions have been arranged to help delegates avoid scheduling conflicts.

"We'll discuss our preliminary findings and try to get input from the membership about how they see this helping, or not helping, Division II," Capon said.