National Collegiate Athletic Association |
The NCAA News - News and FeaturesSeptember 14, 1998 Auburn schedule deemed toughest in I-A football
BY RICHARD M. CAMPBELL
schedule, according to the NCAA's annual preseason toughest-schedule survey. This is the first time Auburn has been selected in the preseason list since 1978, the first year of the survey. However, the 1983 Tigers were the No. 1 team in the end-of-the-season toughest-schedule survey. Auburn's 1998 Division I-A opponents had a 79-25 record (bowls included) last season against Division I-A opponents. Florida, the 1996 final toughest-schedule leader, was second in this year's preseason list, with its opponents posting a 69-39 record. The NCAA's toughest-schedule list uses a computer program for both a preseason and final survey of all I-A and I-AA schedules. The final list will be available before the bowl games in December. A minimum of nine games against I-A opponents is required to be ranked by the program. Behind Auburn and Florida in the top 10 in the 1998 preseason list were Alabama, Washington, Southern California, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Stanford and California. The Southeastern Conference dominated the top 20 teams in the survey with six (five of the top 10), including the top three teams. The Pacific-10 Conference was next with five of the top 20 and four of the top 10. The Big 12 Conference had three of the top 20, as did the Atlantic Coast Conference, followed by the Big Ten Conference with two teams. Rare accomplishment Only three teams in NCAA history have been named national champions in the same season they faced the nation's toughest schedule. Penn State (1984 champion), Colorado (1990 cochampion) and Florida (1996 champion) were the only teams to accomplish the feat. Only three teams--Penn State (1984), Notre Dame (1987) and Michigan (1994)--have been first on both the preseason and final toughest-schedule lists. Last season, Michigan, the preseason leader, became a co-national champion playing against the 25th toughest schedule in the nation. Southern California, faces the most Division I-A bowl teams in 1998 with eight. Ten other teams face seven bowl opponents this year, including Illinois, Indiana, Miami (Florida), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Stanford and Washington. How the program works The NCAA preseason computer program answers one question--what did a team's I-A opponents in 1998 do last season, bowls included, when not playing that team? It is important to delete games against the team being ranked, Without doing that, a big winner like Michigan, 12-0 last season, would have no chance to rank high because its foes would start out 0-12--assuming Michigan played exactly the same schedule as in 1997. Conversely, foes of an 0-11 team would enjoy an 11-0 start. Remember, also, that all games against teams outside of Division I-A are deleted because I-A teams win more than 75 percent of such games. "Toughest" always will be a subjective matter involving opinion and regional bias, no matter what ranking system is used. See the accompanying table for a list of teams whose opponents posted at least a .500 winning percentage last year against I-A foes. In most cases, all preseason toughest-schedule rankings are based on the previous season. That means early in the year, some teams may pull "upsets." But as the year progresses, those games will seem less and less like upsets. That happens because it is difficult to compare team strengths from one year to the next. Before this 21st annual preseason toughest-schedule, 14 of the 20 final No. 1 teams were in the top 10 in the preseason list. Colorado, last year's final toughest-schedule leader, was rated fifth in the 1997 preseason chart. From this point in the season on, the NCAA toughest-schedule program will be based solely on the 1998 results. The season-end rankings will not include bowl games. Teams with schedules above the break-even or .500 level in I-A are listed in the accompanying table. Year-by-year leaders in the preseason and season-ending rankings also are listed in the accompanying I-A table. Blue Hens in I-AA
Others in the top five are last year's preseason No. 1 Indiana State, Florida A&M, Southern Utah and Pennsylvania. Five I-AA teams will face the most playoff and/or bowl teams (four) in 1998. They are Delaware State, Florida A&M, Howard, Indiana State and Southern Utah. Only two preseason toughest-schedule leaders have gone on to lead in the final rankings--Florida A&M in 1983 and Georgia Southern in 1990. Indiana State, last year's preseason selection, finished 11th in the final poll. Georgia Southern in 1990 is the only team that won the I-AA national championship and also finished No. 1 in the final I-AA toughest-schedule list. It is arguably more difficult to win the I-AA championship than the I-A national title, because the I-AA team must win it on the field and not depend on voters in the polls. In Division I-AA, all games vs. teams outside I-A and I-AA are deleted. Teams that played either Boston University or Evansville in 1997 will not find those games reflected in the totals. Both Boston University and Evansville dropped their football programs following the 1997 season. Teams with schedules above .500 in I-AA are listed in an accompanying table. Year-by-year preseason and season-end leaders also are included. College football facts In 1998, Division I-A stays the same with 112 teams while I-AA upped its number to 119 with the addition of Arkansas-Pine Bluff (former provisional), Jacksonville (Florida) (new program) and Portland State (from Division II).
Division I-A Toughest SchedulesHere are all Division I-A teams whose opponents were above .500 last year against I-A foes (a minimum of nine I-A opponents is required for ranking; the number of I-A bowl opponents is in parentheses): -- -- W -- L -- T -- *Pct. 1. -- Auburn (5) -- 79 -- 25 -- 0 -- .693 2. -- Florida (5) -- 69 -- 39 -- 0 -- .639 3. -- Alabama (6) -- 77 -- 44 -- 0 -- .636 4. -- Washington (7) -- 75 -- 43 -- 0 -- .636 5. -- Southern Cal (8) -- 82 -- 50 -- 0 -- .621 6. -- Georgia (6) -- 75 -- 46 -- 0 -- .620 7. -- South Caro. (6) -- 72 -- 46 -- 0 -- .610 8. -- Texas A&M (5) -- 79 -- 52 -- 0 -- .603 9. -- Stanford (7) -- 71 -- 47 -- 0 -- .602 10. -- California (6) -- 71 -- 48 -- 0 -- .597 11. -- Florida St. (5) -- 73 -- 51 -- 0 -- .589 12. -- Wake Forest (5) -- 60 -- 43 -- 0 -- .583 13. -- LSU (5) -- 65 -- 48 -- 0 -- .575 14. -- Virginia (6) -- 67 -- 50 -- 0 -- .573 15. -- Oregon (6) -- 68 -- 51 -- 0 -- .571 16. -- Notre Dame (5) -- 65 -- 49 -- 0 -- .570 17. -- Penn St. (7) -- 70 -- 53 -- 0 -- .569 18. -- Indiana (7) -- 68 -- 53 -- 0 -- .562 19. -- Nebraska (5) -- 71 -- 56 -- 0 -- .559 20. -- Missouri (4) -- 62 -- 49 -- 0 -- .559 21. -- Syracuse (6) -- 67 -- 53 -- 0 -- .558 22. -- Clemson (4) -- 58 -- 46 -- 0 -- .558 23. -- Texas (5) -- 66 -- 53 -- 0 -- .555 24. -- North Caro. (4) -- 63 -- 51 -- 0 -- .553 25. -- Tennessee (4) -- 64 -- 52 -- 0 -- .552 26. -- Wyoming (3) -- 60 -- 49 -- 0 -- .550 27. -- Colorado (5) -- 67 -- 55 -- 0 -- .549 28. -- North Caro. St. (5) -- 63 -- 52 -- 0 -- .548 29. -- Miami (Fla.) (7) -- 60 -- 50 -- 0 -- .545 30. -- Maryland (5) -- 56 -- 47 -- 0 -- .544 31. -- Vanderbilt# (4) -- 64 -- 54 -- 0 -- .542 31. -- Arkansas# (4) -- 64 -- 54 -- 0 -- .542 33. -- Ohio St.(6) -- 65 -- 55 -- 0 -- .542 34. -- Michigan St. (7) -- 73 -- 62 -- 0 -- .541 35. -- Georgia Tech (4) -- 60 -- 51 -- 0 -- .541 36. -- Kansas (5) -- 57 -- 49 -- 0 -- .538 37. -- Washington St. (5) -- 59 -- 51 -- 0 -- .536 38. -- Bowling Green (3) -- 61 -- 53 -- 0 -- .535 39. -- Minnesota (7) -- 62 -- 54 -- 0 -- .534 40. -- Michigan (7) -- 72 -- 63 -- 0 -- .533 41. -- Mississippi St. (4) -- 57 -- 50 -- 0 -- .533 42. -- Arizona St. (5) -- 62 -- 55 -- 0 -- .530 43. -- Kentucky (4) -- 56 -- 50 -- 0 -- .528 44. -- Northwestern (7) -- 68 -- 61 -- 0 -- .527 45. -- Tulsa (4) -- 59 -- 53 -- 0 -- .527 46. -- Arizona (6) -- 67 -- 61 -- 0 -- .523 47. -- Illinois (7) -- 57 -- 52 -- 0 -- .523 48. -- UCLA (4) -- 60 -- 55 -- 0 -- .522 49. -- Kent# (2) -- 52 -- 48 -- 0 -- .520 49. -- Central Fla.# (3) -- 52 -- 48 -- 0 -- .520 51. -- Mississippi (3) -- 59 -- 55 -- 0 -- .518 52. -- Baylor (4) -- 63 -- 59 -- 0 -- .516 53. -- Oklahoma St.(3) -- 61 -- 58 -- 0 -- .513 54. -- Northern Ill. (1) -- 51 -- 49 -- 0 -- .510 55. -- Duke (4) -- 53 -- 51 -- 0 -- .510 56. -- Louisiana Tech (3) -- 56 -- 54 -- 0 -- .509 57. -- Houston (4) -- 59 -- 57 -- 0 -- .509 58. -- Eastern Mich. (2) -- 51 -- 50 -- 0 -- .505 59. -- Oregon St. (6) -- 59 -- 58 -- 0 -- .504 60. -- Iowa St. (4) -- 60 -- 59 -- 0 -- .504 61. -- UNLV (3) -- 62 -- 61 -- 0 -- .504 62. -- Hawaii# (3) -- 65 -- 65 -- 0 -- .500 62. -- Miami (Ohio)# (3) -- 55 -- 55 -- 0 -- .500 *Ties are computed as half won, half lost. #These are the only exact ties in percentage. Two other teams, Alabama-Birmingham and Northeast Louisiana, would have been ranked but do not have at least nine I-A opponents on their schedules. Here are the year-by-year leaders in preseason rankings (with actual final ranking) and season-end ranking (with preseason ranking): Preseason -- -- Final -- Yr. -- Leader -- Pct. -- Rank -- Pct. '78 -- Pittsburgh -- .645 -- 47 -- .514 '79 -- Notre Dame -- .708 -- 4 -- .639 '80 -- Penn St. -- .661 -- 3 -- .647 '81 -- Florida St. -- .684 -- 7 -- .607 '82 -- Florida St. -- .614 -- 5 -- .625 '83 -- UCLA -- .681 -- 2 -- .641 '84 -- Penn St. -- .670 -- 1 -- .613 '85 -- Florida -- .661 -- 3 -- .660 '86 -- Notre Dame -- .672 -- 3 -- .634 '87 -- Notre Dame -- .657 -- 1 -- .673 '88 -- Kentucky -- .644 -- 10 -- .595 '89 -- Florida St. -- .696 -- 4 -- .611 '90 -- Notre Dame -- .709 -- 4 -- .618 '91 -- Florida St. -- .679 -- 4 -- .612 '92 -- South Caro. -- .672 -- 14 -- .569 '93 -- Florida St. -- .637 -- 10 -- .607 '94 -- Michigan -- .643 -- 1 -- .631 '95 -- Michigan St. -- .635 -- 28 -- .545 '96 -- Oklahoma -- .675 -- 59 -- .513 '97 -- Michigan -- .654 -- 25 -- .561 Final -- -- Preseason Yr. -- Leader -- Pct. -- Rank -- Pct. '78 -- Notre Dame -- .709 -- 25 -- .552 '79 -- UCLA -- .655 -- 3 -- .640 '80 -- Florida St. -- .673 -- 26 -- .565 '81 -- Penn St. -- .679 -- 2 -- .656 '82 -- Penn St.* -- .646 -- 6 -- .591 '83 -- Auburn -- .688 -- 5 -- .616 '84 -- Penn St. -- .613 -- 1 -- .670 '85 -- Notre Dame -- .707 -- 14 -- .566 '86 -- Florida -- .682 -- 5 -- .618 '87 -- Notre Dame -- .673 -- 1 -- .657 '88 -- Virginia Tech -- .648 -- 11 -- .589 '89 -- Notre Dame -- .655 -- 5 -- .600 '90 -- Colorado** -- .628 -- 18 -- .561 '91 -- South Caro. -- .644 -- 5 -- .605 '92 -- Southern Cal -- .636 -- 4 -- .626 '93 -- LSU -- .632 -- 4 -- .593 '94 -- Michigan -- .631 -- 1 -- .643 '95 -- Notre Dame -- .638 -- 26 -- .547 '96 -- Florida* -- .631 -- 10 -- .613 '97 -- Colorado -- .673 -- 5 -- .595 *National polls champion. **National polls cochampion.
Division I-AA Toughest SchedulesHere are all Division I-AA teams with schedules above .500 (minimum nine I-A or I-AA opponents required for ranking; playoff and/or bowl teams in parentheses): -- -- W -- L -- T -- *Pct. 1. -- Delaware (2) -- 60 -- 38 -- 0 -- .612 2. -- Indiana St. (4) -- 61 -- 42 -- 0 -- .592 3. -- Florida A&M (4) -- 60 -- 42 -- 0 -- .588 4. -- Southern Utah (4) -- 54 -- 38 -- 0 -- .587 5. -- Pennsylvania (0) -- 55 -- 40 -- 0 -- .579 6. -- Delaware St. (4) -- 52 -- 38 -- 0 -- .578 7. -- Northern Iowa (3) -- 57 -- 42 -- 0 -- .576 8. -- Fordham (3) -- 62 -- 47 -- 0 -- .569 9. -- Howard (4) -- 56 -- 45 -- 0 -- .554 10. -- Columbia (0) -- 51 -- 41 -- 0 -- .554 11. -- Norfolk St.(3) -- 45 -- 37 -- 0 -- .549 12. -- New Hampshire (2) -- 52 -- 43 -- 0 -- .547 13. -- Jacksonville St. (3) -- 53 -- 44 -- 0 -- .546 14. -- Citadel (3) -- 58 -- 49 -- 0 -- .542 15. -- Colgate (0) -- 58 -- 50 -- 0 -- .537 16. -- Northwestern St.# (3) -- 54 -- 47 -- 0 -- .535 16. -- Tennessee St.# (3) -- 54 -- 47 -- 0 -- .535 18. -- Northeastern (2) -- 56 -- 49 -- 0 -- .533 19. -- Duquesne (2) -- 49 -- 43 -- 0 -- .533 20. -- Furman (3) -- 58 -- 51 -- 0 -- .532 21. -- Rhode Island (2) -- 55 -- 49 -- 0 -- .529 22. -- Nicholls St. (2) -- 56 -- 50 -- 0 -- .528 23. -- Troy St.(3) -- 57 -- 51 -- 0 -- .528 24. -- William & Mary (3) -- 58 -- 52 -- 0 -- .527 25. -- Bethune-Cookman (3) -- 39 -- 35 -- 0 -- .527 26. -- Yale# (1) -- 50 -- 45 -- 0 -- .526 26. -- Hampton# (2) -- 50 -- 45 -- 0 -- .526 28. -- James Madison (3) -- 52 -- 47 -- 0 -- .525 29. -- Appalachian St.# (2) -- 55 -- 50 -- 0 -- .524 29. -- Maine# (2) -- 55 -- 50 -- 0 -- .524 31. -- Buffalo (3) -- 50 -- 46 -- 0 -- .521 32. -- Eastern Ky.(1) -- 51 -- 47 -- 0 -- .520 33. -- Stephen F. Austin (3) -- 53 -- 49 -- 0 -- .520 34. -- Holy Cross (2) -- 56 -- 52 -- 0 -- .519 35. -- Grambling (3) -- 42 -- 40 -- 0 -- .512 36. -- Northern Ariz.(2) -- 44 -- 42 -- 0 -- .512 37. -- Montana (1) -- 45 -- 43 -- 0 -- .511 38. -- VMI (1) -- 47 -- 45 -- 0 -- .511 39. -- Cornell (0) -- 48 -- 46 -- 0 -- .511 40. -- Sam Houston St.(3) -- 41 -- 40 -- 0 -- .506 41. -- Dartmouth# (1) -- 48 -- 47 -- 0 -- .505 41. -- Harvard# (1) -- 48 -- 47 -- 0 -- .505 43. -- Massachusetts (3) -- 52 -- 52 -- 0 -- .500 43. -- Montana St. (2) -- 40 -- 40 -- 0 -- .500 43. -- South Caro. St. (2) -- 42 -- 42 -- 0 -- .500 43. -- Lafayette (1) -- 54 -- 54 -- 0 -- .500 43. -- Cal St. Sacramento (2) -- 40 -- 40 -- 0 -- .500 *Ties computed as half won, half lost. #These are the only exact ties in percentage. Six other teams would have ranked but play fewer than nine games against either I-A or I-AA opponents. They are Austin Peay, Central Connecticut State, North Carolina A&T, Robert Morris, San Diego and South Florida. Here are the year-by-year leaders in both programs, how they started and how they finished: Preseason -- -- Final -- Yr. -- Leader -- Pct. -- Rank -- Pct. '83 -- Florida A&M -- .660 -- 1 -- .640 '84 -- South Caro. St. -- .617 -- 18 -- .517 '85 -- Tennessee Tech -- .590 -- 16 -- .500 '86 -- South Caro. St. -- .595 -- 19 -- .520 '87 -- Western Ky. -- .622 -- 27 -- .482 '88 -- Ga. Southern -- .688 -- 2 -- .580 '89 -- Ga. Southern -- .644 -- 15 -- .541 '90 -- Ga. Southern# -- .606 -- 1 -- .677 '91 -- Ga. Southern -- .621 -- 10 -- .551 '92 -- Texas Southern -- .582 -- 30 -- .486 '93 -- Liberty -- .631 -- 22 -- .526 '94 -- Troy St. -- .591 -- 87 -- .448 '95 -- Weber St. -- .619 -- 17 -- .538 '96 -- Nicholls St. -- .604 -- 53 -- .483 '97 -- Indiana St. -- .606 -- 11 -- .548 #National I-AA playoff champion. Final -- -- Preseason -- Yr. -- Leader -- Pct. -- Rank -- Pct. '83 -- Florida A&M -- .640 -- 1 -- .660 '84 -- North Texas -- .609 -- 20 -- .495 '85 -- South Caro. St. -- .680 -- 2 -- .585 '86 -- James Madison -- .620 -- 72 -- .417 '87 -- Ga. Southern -- .603 -- 72 -- .418 '88 -- Northwestern St. -- .598 -- 16 -- .510 '89 -- Liberty -- .635 -- 71 -- .438 '90 -- Ga. Southern* -- .677 -- 1 -- .606 '91 -- Bucknell -- .645 -- 3 -- .576 '92 -- VMI -- .561 -- 33 -- .465 '93 -- Samford -- .679 -- 47 -- .506 '94 -- Montana -- .604 -- 11 -- .550 '95 -- Western Ky. -- .648 -- 79 -- .447 '96 -- Indiana St. -- .610 -- 32 -- .523 '97 -- Lehigh -- .625 -- 27 -- .500 *National I-AA playoff champion. |
In the I-AA toughest-schedule survey, Delaware--12th in the 1997 final toughest-schedule list--is this year's preseason pick. The Blue Hens' opponents had a 60-38 record (playoffs included) when not playing Delaware.