The NCAA News - News and Features

September 1, 1997

Michigan's schedule looks toughest -- at least for now

Wolverines' Division I-A opponents have best winning percentage from '96 season

BY RICHARD M. CAMPBELL
NCAA STATISTICS COORDINATOR

If history is any gauge, then the Michigan Wolverines face the toughest road in college football in 1997.

The Wolverines lead the nation's 112 teams in the NCAA Division I-A preseason toughest-schedule survey.

The last time Michigan was selected first in the annual preseason toughest-schedule survey was 1994, when the Wolverines went on to finish first in the postseason survey.

This year's Michigan schedule features traditional college powerhouses Colorado, Iowa, Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State, along with strong upstarts Northwestern and Wisconsin.

Michigan's 1997 Division I-A opponents had an 81-42 record (bowls included) last season vs. Division I-A foes other than the Wolverines. Washington, expected to be a national title contender, is rated second in the survey, with opponents posting a 78-43 record.

The NCAA has compiled a toughest-schedule list since 1978, utilizing a computer program for both a preseason and final survey of all I-A and I-AA schedules. The final list will be available prior to the bowl games in December. A minimum of nine games vs. I-A opponents is required to be ranked by the program.

The other finishers in the preseason list were last year's final toughest-schedule champion Florida (third), followed by Arkansas (fourth), Colorado (fifth), Illinois (sixth), Arizona (seventh), Southern Mississippi (eighth), Oklahoma (ninth), and Auburn and Arizona State (tied for 10th).

Focusing on the top 20 teams in the survey, the Southeastern Conference leads the way with five teams -- Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama (tied for 15th) and Tennessee (tied for 18th).

The Big Ten Conference and Pacific-10 Conference each have four teams in the top 20.

The Big Twelve has only three of its schools ranked in the top 20 after having eight of the top 10 in 1996's preseason survey.

Rare accomplishment

If Michigan coach Lloyd Carr can lead the Wolverines to a No. 1 finish in the final polls at season's end, it will be well-earned. It is a rare accomplishment to capture a national poll championship while playing the toughest schedule in the country.

Last year, Florida became only the third team in NCAA history to be named national champion in the same season it faced the nation's toughest schedule. Colorado (1990 cochampion) and Penn State (1984 champion) were the only other teams to accomplish the feat.

Only three teams -- Penn State (1984), Notre Dame (1987) and Michigan (1994) -- have been first on both the preseason and final toughest-schedule lists.

Michigan also faces seven Division I-A bowl participants from last season, joining four other teams facing the most bowl teams on their 1997 schedules. The others are Oklahoma, Duke, Indiana, Minnesota and Rutgers.

How the program works

The NCAA preseason computer program answers one question -- what did a team's I-A opponents in 1997 do last season, bowls included, when not playing that team?

It is important to delete games against the team being ranked. Without doing that, a big winner like Florida State, 11-0 last season (not counting bowl games), would have no chance to rank high because its foes would start out 0-11 -- assuming Florida State played exactly the same schedule as in 1996. Conversely, foes of an 0-11 team would enjoy an 11-0 start.

Remember, also, that all games against teams outside of Division I-A are deleted because I-A teams win more than 75 percent of such games. "Toughest" always will be a subjective matter involving opinion and regional bias, no matter what ranking system is used.

See the accompanying table for a list of teams whose opponents posted at least a .500 winning percentage last year against I-A foes.

In most cases, all preseason toughest-schedule rankings are based on the previous season. That means early in the year, some teams may pull "upsets." But as the year progresses, those games will seem less and less like upsets.

That happens because it is difficult to compare team strengths from one year to the next.

Before this 20th annual preseason toughest-schedule ranking, 13 of the 19 final No. 1 teams were in the top 10 in the preseason list. Florida, last year's final toughest-schedule leader, was rated third in the 1996 preseason chart.

From this point in the season on, the NCAA toughest-schedule program will be based solely on 1997 results. The season-end rankings will not include bowl games.

Teams with schedules above the break-even or .500 level in I-A are listed in the accompanying table. Year-by-year leaders in the preseason and season-end rankings also are listed in the accompanying I-A table.

I-AA no surprise

In the I-AA toughest-schedule survey, Indiana State -- which had the toughest schedule at the end of last year -- also is this year's preseason pick. The Sycamores' opponents had a 60-39 record (playoffs included) when not playing Indiana State.

Others, in order, are Villanova (second), Southern Illinois (third), Western Illinois (fourth) and Stephen F. Austin (fifth).

James Madison, ranked ninth, has the most playoff and/or bowl teams on its schedule, with five.

Only two preseason toughest-schedule leaders have gone on to lead in the final rankings -- Florida A&M in 1983 and Georgia Southern in 1990. Nicholls State, last year's preseason selection, finished 53rd in the final poll.

Georgia Southern in 1990 is the only team that won the I-AA national championship and also finished No. 1 in the final I-AA toughest-schedule list. It arguably is more difficult to win the I-AA championship than the I-A national title, because the I-AA team must win it on the field and not depend on voters in the polls.

In Division I-AA, all games vs. teams outside I-A and I-AA are deleted. Teams with schedules above the break-even or .500 level in I-AA are listed in an accompanying table. Year-by-year preseason and season-end leaders also are included.

College football facts

In 1997, Division I-AA member Marshall moves into the I-A ranks, upping the number of I-A teams to 112.

In I-AA, with Norfolk State moving in from Division II and new programs at La Salle and South Florida, the total now is 118 teams.