The NCAA News - News and Features

January 27, 1997

Scoring, shooting continue to decline

Men bound for shot-clock era lows?

BY GARY K. JOHNSON
NCAA STATISTICS COORDINATOR

The clues were there and now so is the proof.

In the latest national statistical rankings in scoring offense, no men's teams were above 100 points per game. In fact, no team had more than 90 points a game. The leader was Xavier (Ohio) at 88.5.

Individual scoring leaders have already dipped to 19.1 to fill out a top 50. The top 17 teams in scoring defense all are under 60 points a game.

Calls have been coming in from sports information directors, conference public relations directors and basketball writers, all wanting to know various records relating to low scoring since the inception of the shot clock in the 1986 season and the three-point shot during the 1987 season.

Now with the appearance of the midseason national trends it can be officially announced: Scoring is down.

According to the trends, which includes all games through January 12 involving any of the 305 Division I men's teams, scoring is at 140.44 points per game for both teams combined. It's a drop of 3.8 since last year, and if the figure holds out for the full season, it will be the fewest points scored per game in the three-point shot era and the lowest since the first year of the shot clock.

In the first 10 years of three-point shooting, last season's 144.2 points per game was the lowest recorded. Assuming the trend holds, this will be the third straight year that the scoring average has dropped. In the first year of shot clock in 1986, the scoring average was 138.7 per game.

With the number of games played through January 12, a drop of 3.8 points per game represents more than 15,000 fewer points scored so far this season than last year at this time.

Shooting percentages also continue to dip, and when the trend will end is anybody's guess. Field-goal shooting thus far this season is 43.3 percent, slightly lower than last season's final figure (43.9) and the lowest in 32 years (43.1 in 1965). Field-goal percentage has dropped every year since a 47.0 reading in 1989.

Also over the past eight seasons, free-throw percentage has dropped every year from 69.1 in 1989 to 66.5 at midseason this year, except for a one-half point increase in 1995. If the 66.5 figure holds up the rest of the year, it would be the lowest percentage from the line since 66.4 percent in 1958. Last year, free-throw shooters faced the same situation after shooting at a 66.6 clip during the first half of the season, then "got hot" the second half to improve to a season-ending 67.4 percentage for the entire campaign.

Looking at three-point shooting, the amazing 11-year trend continues as three-point percentage is at an all-time low. The trey percentage has dropped every year since its initial season in 1987 when the college bomb squad shot 38.4 percent.

While that tradition continues, another trend involving the three-point shot has come to an end. Last season, the average numbers of three-pointers made and attempted were not higher than the previous year. At the midway mark this season, both teams combined to make 11.6 treys while attempting 34.5 during the game. The made mark is slightly lower than last year's 11.7 and the attempts mark is slightly higher than 1996's 34.2.

The following chart clearly illustrates the 11-year national trend for three-point field goals made, attempted and the percentage since its inception in 1987.

-- 3FG -- 3FG -- 3FG

Year -- Made -- Att. -- Pct.

1987 -- 7.0 -- 18.3 -- 38.4

1988 -- 8.0 -- 20.8 -- 38.2

1989 -- 8.9 -- 23.6 -- 37.6

1990 -- 9.4 -- 25.7 -- 36.7

1991 -- 10.0 -- 27.6 -- 36.1

1992 -- 9.9 -- 28.0 -- 35.5

1993 -- 10.5 -- 29.8 -- 35.4

1994 -- 11.4 -- 33.0 -- 34.49

1995 -- 11.8 -- 34.3 -- 34.45

1996 -- 11.7 -- 34.2 -- 34.2

Mid-1997 -- 11.6 -- 34.5 -- 33.7

In the conference rankings, the Pacific-10 has a big lead in scoring at 78.6 per team per game, followed by the Big Twelve at 76.2 and the Atlantic Coast at 75.1. While ACC teams have been scoring points, they also have held their opponents to only 61.4 points a game for a sizable lead in scoring defense over the second-place Big Ten at 64.7.

Women's trends

The downward spiral continues in women's basketball scoring, but shooting accuracy is holding its own. The midseason report of all 298 Division I teams shows points per game heading to an all-time low since statistical trends first were compiled for women's basketball in 1983-84.

Teams are averaging 133.9 points per game (both teams combined), well below the record 136.5 established in 1992-93. The reason for the drop appears to be a simple matter of fewer shots attempted. Teams are taking 2.5 fewer two-point shots a game compared with this point last year (94.7 vs. 97.2) and making less (41.1 vs. 42.6).

Three-pointers made and attempted are at record levels again, a trend that has continued every year since the shot was introduced in 1987-88. The women are averaging 25.1 three-point attempts per game (both teams combined), nearly 21 percent of all field-goal tries, and making 7.8. Three-point accuracy is up a little over last year, as is free-throw percentage. Free throws made are identical to last year at midseason.

The Big Ten women are the best free-throw shooters in the country, men or women. They are the only league averaging better than 70 percent for the year. The Big East women also have a better free-throw percentage than the top men's conference.

The Atlantic Coast women, like their male counterparts, are tops in scoring defense.