The NCAA News - News & Features

Big 12 dominates toughest-schedule rankings

BY RICHARD M. CAMPBELL
NCAA Statistics Coordinator

Believe it when people say the newly formed Big 12 Conference is going to be one of the most competitive football leagues in Division
I-A. When it comes to toughest schedules, the league is at the forefront of college football.

Oklahoma leads the nation and heads a list of eight Big 12 teams in the top 10 of the NCAA Division I-A preseason toughest-schedule survey. Never has a conference so dominated the preseason rankings since the NCAA began compiling them in 1978.

Oklahoma's 1996 Division I-A opponents had an 81-39 record (bowls included) last season vs. Division I-A foes other than the Sooners. Oklahoma is joined by Big 12 members Kansas (second), Nebraska (third), Iowa State (fourth), Texas Tech (sixth), Colorado (seventh), Kansas State (eighth) and Texas (ninth) in the top 10.

Indiana (fifth) and Florida (10th) are the only non-Big 12 teams in the top 10. Two more Big 12 members also rank high -- Missouri (11th) and Texas A&M (18th) -- giving the league 10 of the top 20. Incidentally, Oklahoma finished 22nd in the final toughest-schedule list for 1995.

The final ranking is a much better indication of a team's true strength of schedule than the preseason list. Also, remember that Big 12 teams will play each other this season and begin to knock each other off, possibly making the final toughest-schedule rankings much different.

But if new Oklahoma coach John Blake can manage to lead the Sooners to a No. 1 finish in the final polls at season's end, it will be earned. It is a tremendous accomplishment to capture a national championship while playing the toughest schedule in the country.

Only Colorado (1990) and Penn State (1984) were named national champion or cochampion in the same season that they faced the nation's toughest schedule. Last year's consensus poll champion, Nebraska, finished 30th in the 1995 final toughest-schedule ranking.

Only three teams -- Penn State (1984), Notre Dame (1987) and Michigan (1994) -- have been first on both the preseason and final toughest-schedule lists.

Iowa State (No. 4 in this year's preseason chart) arguably has the toughest road ahead in 1996 -- facing six Division I-A bowl winners plus one I-AA playoff participant on its schedule. Three other teams -- Colorado, Indiana and South Carolina -- all face seven I-A bowl teams from 1995. Florida also meets six I-A bowl participants and one I-AA playoff team this fall.

How the program works

The NCAA preseason toughest-schedule computer program answers one question -- what did a team's I-A opponents in 1996 do last season, bowls included, when not playing that team?

It is important to delete games against the team being ranked. Without doing that, a big winner like Nebraska -- 11-0 last season (not counting bowl games) -- would have no chance to rank high because its foes would start out 0-11, assuming Nebraska played exactly the same schedule as in 1995. Conversely, foes of an 0-11 team would enjoy an 11-0 start.

Remember, also, that all games against teams outside of Division I-A are deleted because I-A teams win more than 75 percent of such games.

"Toughest" always will be a subjective matter involving opinion and regional bias, no matter what ranking system is used.

In most cases, all preseason toughest-schedule rankings are based on the previous season. That means early in the year, some teams may pull "upsets." But as the year progresses, those games will seem less and less like upsets. That happens because it is difficult to compare team strengths from one year to the next.

Before this 19th annual preseason toughest-schedule ranking, only three preseason No. 1 teams had finished first in the final list. However, 12 of the 18 final No. 1 teams were in the top 10 in the preseason list. Notre Dame, last year's final toughest-schedule leader, was rated 26th in the preseason chart.

From this point forward, this season's NCAA toughest-schedule program will be based solely on 1996 results. The season-end rankings will not include bowl games.

Year-by-year leaders in preseason and season-end rankings are listed in the accompanying Division I-A table.

Division I-AA leaders

For the first time since rankings began in 1983, Nicholls State is the leader in the Division I-AA preseason toughest-schedule survey.

The 1996 Divisions I-A and I-AA opponents of the Colonels had a 58-38 record vs. I-A and I-AA teams last season (playoffs and bowls included) other than Nicholls State. The .604 winning percentage just edged second-place Boston U., which had a 65-43-1 (.601) record.

Eastern Kentucky and Georgia Southern tied for third, both with 66-47 (.584) records, followed by fifth-place Stephen F. Austin at 50-36 (.581).

Southwest Texas State and Tennessee State lead Division I-AA teams by facing five teams that were in last year's I-AA playoffs or played in a bowl game. Nicholls State heads a group of eight other teams that face four schools from 1995 playoffs or bowl games.

Only two Division I-AA preseason toughest-schedule leaders have gone on to lead in the final rankings -- Florida A&M in 1983 and Georgia Southern in 1990. Last year's preseason leader, Weber State, finished 17th in the final poll, while Nicholls State was second in the 1995 final chart.

Georgia Southern in 1990 is the only team to win the I-AA championship and also finish No. 1 in the final I-AA toughest-schedule list. Realistically, it could be more difficult to win the I-AA championship than the I-A national title, because the I-AA team must win it on the field and not depend on voters in the polls.

Montana, the 1995 I-AA national champion, would have finished 36th in the 1995 final toughest-schedule chart had the Grizzlies played at least nine I-A or I-AA opponents. Montana's 1994 team was first in the final toughest-schedule list.

In Division I-AA, all games vs. teams outside I-A and I-AA are deleted. Year-by-year preseason and season-end leaders also are included.

College football facts

In 1996, four Division I-AA teams -- Alabama-Birmingham, Boise State, Central Florida and Idaho -- moved into the I-A ranks. Former I-A member Pacific (California) dropped its football program, thus making the number of I-A teams 111.

In Division I-AA, with four teams departing and the addition of a new program at Fairfield, the total now is 116 members.